NCGA: Alternative Worlds Make It Real
07/24/2010 04:10PM
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Most people like a good ‘whodunit’, and apparently so does Stanford University researcher David Lobell. If you follow environmental news, greenhouse gas alleviation seems to cause more consternation than revelation. However, a new study co-authored by Dr. Lobell and published in last month’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences seems to be uncovering some much needed clues on the subject.
Dr. Lobell, a research fellow in Stanford’s Program on Food Security and the Environment and assistant professor of environmental earth system science, focuses his research on identifying opportunities to raise crop yields in major agricultural regions with an emphasis on adaptation to climate change. He currently conducts projects in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States using tools such as remote sensing, geographic information systems and crop and climate modeling.
What makes the recent work of Dr. Lobell and his research team unique is their methodology for identifying climatic implications of agriculture through the comparison of actual production data with hypothetical scenarios expanding farmland rather than yields. By creating and comparing alternatives to what actually happened in the period from 1961 to 2005, the researchers were able to dismiss the idea modern agricultural production is more damaging to the environment than old fashion means.
The study revealed that increased yields over the past 50 years have reduced the need to convert several billion uncultivated acres to farmland. This has avoided the addition of greenhouse gases equaling a third of the world’s total output since the Industrial Revolution of 1850. If one would put a dollar figure to avoiding greenhouse gases by investing in crop yield research, the cost would be between $4.00 and $7.50 for each ton of carbon dioxide emitted during this period.
“The size and cost-effectiveness of this carbon reduction is striking when compared with proposed mitigation options in other sectors,” said Lobell. “For example, strategies proposed to reduce emissions related to construction would cut emissions by a little less than half the amount we estimate has been achieved by yield improvements and would cost close to $20 per ton.”
In the last half century, the world’s population increased by 111 percent while crops grew by 162 percent. It has become clear that innovation and science have enabled us to feed more people. Coupled with conservation and development efforts, further yield sleuthing should be prominent among efforts to reduce further GHG emissions.
David B. Lobell, Ph.D.
Program on Food Security and the Environment Fellow
Assistant Professor of Environmental Earth System Science
Stanford University
Professor Lobell’s work advances the science that guides investment in food security and crop productivity, and effectively communicates this science to a broad audience.
Research interests: Lobell studies the interactions between food production, food security, and the environment using a range of modern tools. The work is motivated by questions such as: What investments are most effective at raising global crop yields, in order to increase food production without expansion of agricultural lands? Will yield gains be able to keep pace with global demand for crop products, given current levels of investment? And what direct or indirect effects will efforts to raise crop productivity have on other components of the Earth System, such as climate? Answering these requires an understanding of the complex factors that limit crop yields throughout the world, and the links between agriculture and the broader Earth System.
Current research focus: Current work focuses on three main areas of research.
1. Food security, crop yields, and climate change - What are the risks that climate change poses to regional and global food production? And what are the specific adaptations that should be pursued to reduce the risk of impacts from imminent climate changes?
2. Identifying constraints to regional crop yields - One of the most remarkable aspects of modern agriculture is that yields in farmers' fields vary widely, with average yields in a region consistently 30% or more below yields achieved on some fields.
3. Environmental consequences of food and biofuel production - The major systems of the Earth - water, energy, food, climate, carbon, nitrogen, etc. – are tightly interconnected. This means, for example, that a decision in the energy system has implications for climate and food, and conversely that a change in the food system has consequences for energy and climate.